The Quantitative Pivot: Deconstructing the March FOMC Probability Matrix
PREDICTION MARKET INSIGHT | The March Inflection: Fed Policy & Predictive Liquidity As of February 1, 2026, the global macro environment is bracing for the March 17-18 FOMC gathering. Following the "January Pause" where the Federal Reserve maintained the target range at 3.50%–3.75% , prediction markets have become the primary lens for interpreting the FOMC's next move. Unlike the trailing data of the 2020s, the 2026 market operates on Hyper-Reactive Liquidity —where Polymarket and Kalshi signals often precede Bloomberg Terminal updates by minutes. Market Neutral Probability 77% 25bps Cut Odds 18% Current Volume (March) $120M+ Open Interest Delta +14.2% WHAT: The Current Landscape The primary contract under scrutiny is the Polymarket "F...